'This is No 2008-Style Crash': Helios Capital's Samir Arora Explains Why This Bear Market Is Different

📉 'This is no 2008-style crash': Helios Capital's Samir Arora Explains Why This Bear Market Is Different

The Indian stock market is witnessing a steep decline, and investor fears are running high. However, Helios Capital founder Samir Arora believes there is no reason to compare the current downturn to past market crashes like the 2000 dot-com bubble or the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC).

According to Arora, the current bear market is fundamentally different as it is not driven by systemic excesses or economic distress. He dismissed parallels with previous market crashes, highlighting the absence of major economic disruptions.

💡 Why Is This Bear Market Different?

"Why this bear market is not like 2000 and 2008 — and it is so wrong to compare with them — is because this time it is not accompanied by:

• Excessive and wasteful investments in any sector.
• Massive job losses in the corporate sector.
• Property price crashes or housing market collapse.
• Unwinding of leveraged positions by institutions.
• Spike in Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) among banks.

Arora confidently stated, "This is merely a valuation correction of a group of companies without any real economic harm. Hence, the recovery period will be much faster compared to the past market crashes."

📊 Bear Market Insights: Arora vs Sharma

Interestingly, Arora's optimism comes just days after veteran investor Shankar Sharma expressed serious concerns about the ongoing market downturn. Sharma described the current bear market as a '100% local problem' requiring a domestic solution.

During a discussion at the Moneycontrol Global Wealth Summit 2025 in Mumbai, Sharma warned that India's five-year bull run is losing steam and the markets may deliver zero returns over the next four to five years from its September 2024 highs.

🚨 Sharma's Major Concerns:

• Heavily overheated small-cap stocks that are prone to sharp corrections.
• Weak policy response from the government.
• High foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows.
• Rapid fall in the Indian rupee.
• Increasing US bond yields, adding pressure to the stock market.

🔥 What Did Sharma Say About Market Recovery?

Sharma drew parallels with India's historical bear markets, stating:

"We have had four major bear markets in India since 1990:

• 1992: Harshad Mehta Scam.
• 2000: Dot-com Bubble Crash.
• 2008: Global Financial Crisis (GFC).
• 2020: COVID-19 Market Crash.

The market recovered quickly in three of these cases except the Harshad Mehta scam because it was a local crisis. This time, it feels similar."

Sharma further criticized the government's response to the market downturn, stating:

"We need to find our own bullets to come out of this. And if a 0.25% rate cut or ₹800 per capita stimulus count as solutions, then God save us."

📊 Sharma’s Prediction: Will Nifty 50 Deliver Zero Returns?

Sharma also warned that Nifty 50 may deliver zero returns over the next four to five years from its September 2024 highs. He shared his personal experience, stating:

"I tried to sell everything I could in July 2024 when the market was booming. However, I got stuck with some investments and now I'm hoping for another bull market by 2030."

💸 How Much Market Value Has India Lost?

According to the latest market data:

• The BSE Sensex's total market capitalization has declined by ₹25 lakh crore since September 26, 2024.
• The valuation of all BSE-listed firms has dropped by a whopping ₹92 lakh crore.
• Increased FII selling and a rapid fall in the rupee have amplified the losses.

💼 What Lies Ahead For The Indian Stock Market?

While Samir Arora remains confident about a faster recovery due to the absence of systemic issues, Shankar Sharma believes that:

• Small-cap stocks are still highly overvalued.
• The government needs a stronger domestic financial strategy to pull out of the bear market.
• The Indian stock market may not show significant growth until 2030.

💡 Final Thought: Will Samir Arora's optimism prevail or will Shankar Sharma's cautious prediction turn true?

📊 Keep tracking the Indian stock market as it navigates through this bear market phase.